Can You Predict Divorce? What the Research Says About Relationship Red Flags
Back in middle school, some kids thought they were psychic. Guessing which team would win the Super Bowl or what color socks a friend was wearing became a party trick that earned “mind-reader” status—at least until the next wrong prediction.
Fast forward to adulthood, and while the psychic vibes may have faded, the desire to predict the future—especially in relationships—is stronger than ever. Wouldn’t it be helpful to know if a relationship will last before putting years of time, energy, and love into it?
While there’s no crystal ball for love, relationship researchers have uncovered some solid predictors of divorce. Understanding these risk factors won’t guarantee a specific outcome, but they can help couples navigate wisely, avoid common pitfalls, and build a stronger connection.
1. Some Risks Come From the Past
Research shows that certain life circumstances increase the odds of future relationship challenges. For example:
Growing up with divorced parents has been linked to higher rates of divorce in adulthood.
Lower levels of education are associated with greater relationship instability.
Getting married at a very young age also raises the risk of divorce.
These aren’t automatic deal-breakers. But they’re important context. Being aware of these patterns can help individuals and couples make more informed, intentional choices in their relationships.
2. Living Together Before Marriage? The Research Is Mixed
Many couples live together before tying the knot, thinking it will help them “test compatibility.” But here’s the twist: cohabiting before marriage has been associated with a higher risk of divorce—especially when couples move in without clearly discussing their long-term plans.
Why? Researchers suggest that “sliding” into big commitments (like cohabiting or marriage) without deliberate conversations can lead to relationships that are harder to end—even if they’re not right. That doesn't mean living together is always a bad move, but it’s a reminder that clarity and communication matter more than just sharing a space.
3. How Couples Fight Matters Most
The strongest predictor of divorce? It isn’t background or cohabitation—it’s what happens inside the relationship.
Couples who routinely experience:
Frequent unresolved conflict
Yelling, name-calling, or contempt
Cheating or dishonesty
Physical or emotional abuse
…are significantly more likely to break up or divorce.
But here’s the good news: healthy conflict management can be learned. Partners who focus on respectful communication, empathy, emotional regulation, and conflict resolution can actually turn disagreements into opportunities for connection and growth.
Predictors Are Just That—Not Prophecies
A high-risk factor doesn’t doom a relationship. Many couples overcome tough odds with commitment, growth, and intentional effort. Predictors simply help identify what may need extra attention and care.
Every couple is different. But the most successful ones tend to have a few things in common: they prioritize communication, handle conflict with respect, stay curious about each other, and choose their relationship over and over again—especially on hard days.
Want to Future-Proof Your Relationship?
Here are a few ideas to help couples build a lasting connection:
Take a relationship assessment together to identify strengths and growth areas
Invest in communication skills through books, podcasts, or relationship classes
Talk about values, money, family, and long-term goals before big commitments
Revisit hard conversations with empathy and openness—not defensiveness
Healthy love isn’t about being perfect. It’s about learning, evolving, and showing up for each other every day.
Because while no one can predict the future, it’s possible to build a relationship strong enough to weather it.